GlobalTip – Tipping Points, Dynamics and Interactions of Social and Ecological Systems

Human activities and climate change are pushing ecosystems to the limits of their stability - they are approaching a tipping point. "GlobalTip" examines social and ecological impact chains that drastically change people's living conditions.

Humans are changing natural ecosystems around the world through soil cultivation, (over)use of resources and urbanisation. Climatic changes are also causing stress. For example, the increasing erosion of agricultural soils due to more extreme events such as heavy rainfall and longer periods of drought jeopardises long-term food security. This is because the erosion of the particularly fertile topsoil and the associated reduction in soil productivity reduce agricultural yields. Another problem is that more and more forest soils, which protect against erosion, are being exploited as arable land and thus increasingly degraded to the point of infertility.

Complex interactions between socio-economic and ecological factors play a major role in these developments and can reinforce each other negatively. This can lead to abrupt and difficult to reverse or irreversible changes of state, so-called tipping points. These tipping points lead to a significant reduction in ecosystem services for humans, both locally and globally, such as oxygen production, carbon dioxide sequestration and soil fertility. The natural capacity for food production is also being reduced accordingly. This poses risks to our health and social well-being. The "Global Tipping Point Report 2023", which was published by more than 200 experts from over 90 countries during the COP28 World Climate Conference at the end of 2023, emphasises the need and urgency for further research into tipping points and the interactions between social and ecological systems. According to the report, for example, less is known about how crossing tipping points in ecological systems affects societal systems than about the direct consequences within ecosystems. This is due to limited experience with tipping points and delayed reactions of societal systems.

Global research, local recommendations for action

In 2017, the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) launched the international and interdisciplinary research programme "Tipping Points, Dynamics and Interactions of Social and Ecological Systems". In the first funding phase (BioTip) from 2017 to 2023, the BMBF provided around 20 million euros for the research projects. The BMBF is currently supporting the second funding phase (GlobalTip) from 2023 to 2025 with a further 13 million euros.

The aim of the first funding phase "BioTip" was to deepen research and scientific understanding of tipping points on land and in the sea and to close knowledge gaps. Some research projects have already been able to detect tipping points and identify indicators that point to a tipping point. This involved the use of various methods from different scientific disciplines, such as mathematical modelling, psychological models and experimental field studies. The intensive collaboration between the research projects and representatives from society, business and politics in the research areas has also improved the understanding of the emergence of tipping points – especially for the local people affected.

Building on the results of "BioTip", the second phase of research, "GlobalTip", focuses in particular on developing strategies for action and adaptation measures to avoid tipping points. These are intended to promote a transition towards sustainable societies and prevent negative impacts on ecosystems. Another focus of "GlobalTip" will be on researching the performance of ecosystems and analysing socio-economic trends that need to be counteracted in order to protect our livelihoods. Strategies for action required for greater sustainability are developed for policy-makers and fed into global processes - such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES).

The adaptation measures developed in the projects affect the local economy and population in particular. For this reason, "GlobalTip" continues to focus on dialogue with local people who depend on ecosystems as a direct source of livelihood. Researchers also work closely with local politicians, businesses and social actors to identify and initiate the key processes that will increase the resilience of our environment, prevent irreversible changes to ecosystems and promote resilient social systems.

GlobalTip projects at a glance

In the second phase of the research programme "Tipping Points, Dynamics and Interactions of Social and Ecological Systems", the BMBF is funding six projects with a national and international context.

 

What are ecosystem services?

Ecosystem services refer to the functions of ecosystems that contribute to human well-being and survival - such as the production of oxygen and drinking water. Ecosystems also provide numerous natural resources such as fish, cereals, vegetables, fruit, fibres and wood. If ecosystems are intact, they also contribute to natural climate protection. For example, soils, moors, forests and oceans store the climate-damaging greenhouse gas CO2. Coasts and floodplains offer protection from flooding.

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